Ellen Zentner - on Global Instability

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6 Sep 2011 Bloomberg Ellen Zentner is Nomura Senior US Economist, former Bank Tokyo Senior US Economist and former Economist TX Comptroller. She looks very young for someone who remembers President Carter. Background: Non-Mfg index rises to 53.3, estimate was 51.0 (Presenter) Is there a sense of overall instability of the global economic system? Or do we know where we're going? (Ellen Zentner) Absolutely. Instability seemed to come forward in mid-July. The focus had turned back from Europe to the US. But eventually focus in the markets turned back toward Europe and the lingering problems in Europe that had clearly spilled over to the US. (Presenter) There is a trend in trade-weighted Swiss Franc. Look at it's 8,9,10 standard deviation move. That's why they acted today. We heard from Simon Derrick, the parties have to finally act don't they? (Ellen Zentner) Absolutely. This is just another example of the extraordinary knee-jerk reactions that we end up having when we have unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies coming out of multiple countries at once [Amazing]. It pushes investors into areas they aren't normally in as they chase returns. It makes the guessing game even more so [These are still predictable with macro-focused tools]. (Presenter) Jonathan Basile has estimated from ISM headline indices, non-manufacturing and manufacturing taken together that there will be 1.9% year-over-year real GDP growth over time. Not recessionary, but not strong either. Others have ...

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